by Gerald Zeis
I expect this to be my last installment for a while. You can receive plenty of information on the internet supporting both viewpoints, and many are better writers than me. I will present the data to show that there is more going on than what meets the eye. There is a new disease out there, Corona. The question, “Is it worth the precautions, and the assault on our liberties?” Let’s take a time warp back two years to 2018. This was a particularly bad year for the flu. The CDC estimated that there were 45 million instances of flu, and 61,000 deaths that year. One of the worst years in recent memories. Estimate? Yes. Health organizations are only required to report children dying from the flu. They have a 95% confidence level that it was really between 46,000 and 95,000. That is a pretty wide estimate, but they are the experts, I cannot perform better studies, so we will use 61,000 deaths. The US population is approximately 330 million people. That roughly translates to 185 deaths per million people during that flu season. The corona virus has been in the US from roughly December to now. This is equal to one flu season. How do individual states compare to 185 deaths per million? According to Worldometers coronavirus stats, 14 states are above that number. That means 36 states are below that number. I will write it again, 72% of states, had a lower average death rate than the flu! In fact, only four of the top 10 states by population (New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois) are above that 185 / million number (1456, 490, 352, 330 respectively). For example, Texas, 2017-2018 flu deaths 9,470. 2019-2020 corona deaths 1,535. The flu killed 6 times more Texans in a bad year, than Corona. Please do the research yourself, pick the states of your choice. My conclusion, Overall, even though most states took precautionary measures this year, they were no more needed that the flu year of 2017-2018. Do you recall what you were doing that winter season just two years ago? I took no extra precautions.
Does social distancing work? Yes. But it does need to be to the extreme. Obviously, a person on Mars, will not catch a disease from Earth, and vice versa. NASA does go through great precautions not to contaminate one planet with biological material from the other. I propose, distancing really is just pushing the problem down the road. Two weeks ago I wrote of the bubonic plague not making ‘history’ until travel became more common. The plague has been with us since agriculture began. This week I will remind you of the tragic stories of the indigenous peoples of the Americas. You can believe that Vikings, Polynesians, or Spanish were the first to come to America, For a vast period of time, Indigenous people were socially distant from Old world people. When contact was made, many diseases were transferred. Old World diseases that were not present in the Americas until mixing include bubonic plague, measles, smallpox, mumps, chickenpox, influenza, cholera. Yes, diseases did travel in both directions. Extreme social distancing works, to a degree. If you don’t travel, neither will microbes. Usually. Bacteria and viruses are swept up with dust, and water vapor. It can be carried thousands of miles across oceans. Most of these microorganisms pose no threat, but disease transmission can and does happen this way. Some diseases were present in both the Old and New Worlds. Social distancing is not a cure all. Cloud formation is started with surface to condense on, with a dust particle, or microorganism. It literally is raining viruses. Don’t expect to be safe, just because of distance. As Native North Americans can tell you. It just pushes the problem down the road. You can decide for yourself how much in isolation you need to be, and then will you remain there your whole life?
Corona virus is 10x, or even 50x more deadly than flu. Yes, I can agree it is an order of magnitude more deadly, or more. IF YOU SHOW SYMPTOMS. Above, the statistics showed most states find it less deadly in overall numbers than the flu. We need to find a way to compare apples to apples. For example, Rabies kills 100% of the people who show symptoms. The flu, 0.1%. Transmission is also an issue. This is the media coverage of rabies in my rural setting. Every few years I get a notice in the mail that the Department of Environmental Conservation is teaming with the Erie county Department of Health in vaccination program. They drop meat from helicopter and planes in my area. It has rabies vaccine in it. Please do not touch or allow your pets to eat these pieces of bait.
The standard metric is on a chart that has, How often it kills, and how easy it is to transmit. This determines how dangerous a disease is. One axis, the number it kills, is simple. Deaths, divided by number of cases. How easy it is to transmit. This is called R naught (Ro) This is the reproduction rate. It is a measure of new infections produced by a virus. For example an Ro of 2 means, one person will likely transmit it to two other people. A number less than 1, the disease is subsiding, more, it is increasing. Corona virus has a Ro of approximately 3 if no precautions are taken. Time will tell a more accurate number.
Where is this taking us? Over three weeks, I’ve shown this is a disease to be reasoned with. So are flu, and many other diseases on the chart above. There are childhood vaccinations that save many lives. The government that I grew up with served the people. Now I am not so sure of their priorities. I do know it is not to save lives. Abortion is by far the number one killer in the US. Are they really seeing how far they can scare you? What are you willing to give up in the name of safety? Will they really track you with your vaccine? Will they really take away your right to freedom and being a member of society if you don’t get a vaccine?
You hear that one death is too much. 4,000,000 people are injured in car accidents every year in our country. Shouldn’t the government ban cars? If you take your child in car, should they take them away from you for child endangerment? That would be absurd, but this is the logic that is being pushed. 80,000 people die every year with the primary cause being diabetes. More than flu. Should the government ban sugar in our best interest? They have tried to regulate, but it infringes on our liberties. If I want to be stupid with my health, I can! That is what freedom is about. We do not need people telling us how to live our lives. Even God does not do that! He gives us freedom to choose blessing or curses. We are fully informed of the consequences of our actions. That is what this is about. Last time I wrote, I felt anger and loathing towards my public servants, not serving ME. I had to repent. This week the bible verse that has inundated my life is Acts 23:5 “I’m sorry, brothers. I didn’t realize he was the high priest,” Paul replied, “for the Scriptures say, ‘You must not speak evil of any of your rulers.’” The little footnote points to the first place it was written. Like we need reminders to watch our tongues. The first place. Exodus 22, Moses was still there getting the 10 commandments. 28 “You must not dishonor God or curse any of your rulers.” I will stand up for what is right, but I will respect the person in authority over me. I know the endgame. I want to see my public officials in heaven. God does not want anyone to perish, so what can I do or say against him?
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