Before getting into reporting the data and letting you decide the truth, I want to recap what science was, and what science is now. I am a lifelong scientist. Science was for the last several hundred years, that scientists would propose a hypothesis.
“Witches float!”. They would collect data, interpret the data and come to a conclusion. “If she weighs the same as a duck, then she is a witch!” That hypothesis gets published in peer reviewed journal, and after much debate, might be accepted as fact after critique more tests, and reproducibility. Now, MSM, bypasses the professionals and makes statements. Common folk (non experts) can write in the comments, but it is accepted as facts. News reporters used to fact check, and stake reputations on data. But not anymore. July 30th headline from CNN “California braces for flash flooding as drought worsens” We live in a microwave society. We just spout the headlines. Anyone see the paradox in that sentence? The editor did not. If you wait for the paper review, you miss the headline, the fifteen minutes of fame, so you have a Dr. go straight to the media, help yourself, not help science.
Here is my take using raw data, form your own opinion. If you agree, comment. If you disagree, comment. That is how science works. I am just going to present data from ‘trustworthy sources’ OK, government databases. Question 1. Is there a difference between rate of 14 day rate of change and new cases per 100,000. The answer in an unequivocal yes. Looking at the name, you can tell both would tell how severe the pandemic is going, but you could astutely tell the difference. Imaging 2 states each with 1 million people. 1 state had 1 infected person, and 1 had 500,000, then during a 14 day period each state had 100,000 more cases. Each would have the same new cases, but the percent would be astronomical in state 1.
The second thing to notice is the color scales. Just like driving, green is good and red is bad. Green would be low 14 day change, high vaccination rate, and a low new cases per 100,000. Media and government would have us think there is a direct correlation good vaccination rate, low case transmission. I don’t see a pattern. What I did notice is that based on population density, % increase has a better correlation. I know, who would think crowded states would transmit diseases faster. That thinking is so middle ages, but there it is. If you see that from raw data, why isn’t it news? Are we having the story spun? Would media and government really do that?
COVID SHORT TAKES
Elsewhere on the covid front. I have found that Israeli media reports facts, and gives raw data. One story last week told that after 6 months, the vaccine only was 39% effective. From the numbers in the article, I deduced. I was able to follow it backwards to the same conclusion. When American media picked up the story the next day, the gist was elderly people in Israel are getting booster shots to save lives. All hail the savior. VACCINE. No mention of the raw data, just saw the need for more shots.
Other headlines in Israel: Natural infection vs vaccination: Which gives more protection? Nearly 40% of new COVID patients were vaccinated – compared to just 1% who had been infected previously1.
CNBC headline – CDC study shows 74% of people infected in Massachusetts Covid outbreak were fully vaccinated2.The article then goes back to liberal praising of rare breakthrough and saying that most cases among the intelligent choice are mild. They did say that 4 vaxxed people were hospitalized. Elsewhere it said out of 400 cases. I conclude 1% were hospitalized. Nearly the same as typical healthy people who go out to parties and get Covid vaxxed or not.
Fox News headline – San Francisco hospitals report hundreds of COVID-19 infections among vaccinated staff (but none were hospitalized again is gist of the news below the clickable headline. Sounds like protection is waning, so booster shots, since America has a surplus of shots.)
From CNN talking about side effects for adolescents – Overall, 8,383 or 90.7% of reports (from VAERS) were for non-serious events and 9.3% were for serious events, including death. No reports of death were determined to be the result of myocarditis – I can do math over 800 serious side effects among teens! Is that worth a risk from something as severe as a common cold in young people? Add in you need booster shots every 6 months? (164 adolescents died in the US from Covid since the outbreak started.
nytimes “If getting to 70 or 75 percent immunity doesn’t protect the community, I think it’s very hard to extrapolate what happens to a place that is 30 percent vaccinated,” Dr. Wachter said. “Humility may be the most important thing here.” Yes Dr. be humble, is vaccination really the answer?