By Gerald Zeis
I will start by prefacing this as stating. I am a scientist. I collect data, and form a conclusion to whatever question I am searching for. This is the scientific method, with the exception that I can not in any way try for reproducibility. I will not try to persuade you to any conclusion on your own. That is what the data is for. If I can persuade you with fancy talk, then someone else could persuade you in the opposite direction with their talk. The facts speak for themselves.
I start by saying that President Trump declared a national emergency on March 13th. That was during the 12th week of the calendar year. According to statnews, they stated “Such a declaration could serve as “a way to funnel more resources to states through FEMA, and also to invoke a series of federal powers that can be even more extensive than what you’ve seen done to date,” he said. “That’s predictable, because there’s a deep fund of some resources that FEMA can tap into immediately.”” My interpretation is that you get more money, for more cases and deaths. That very thing starts to tip the scales of putting dollar values on human lives. I proudly live in Western New York. What we call downstate are the five county Burroughs of New York City, the two counties of Long Island, and the two counties that border Bronx (Westchester, and Rockland). Every year Each state health agency and the CDC compile a multitude of influenza statistics. This chart is flu average numbers for the previous 8 years. Some years are worse than others, but if compared to the Corona virus as of April 26th (near the end of the flu season) USA has 987,000 cases, and 55,415 dead. This is very comparable to a typical year of flu related death. Death is horrible for any reason. But I ask, is there reason for global lockdown? Is this that different?
New York state, like many states have an issue with balancing the budget. If money becomes available on week 12 of the year, due to federal declaration, is the government unscrupulous enough to interchange flu, and Corona data? Look at the next set of data from NY health department.
The flu season over the last four years. From week 40 of 2019, through week 11, appeared to be a typical year. Slightly worse than normal. Week 12, when money became available, flu, was cut in half! Unheard of that early in the season. Week 13 showed a 75% drop off. Week 14 another 60%. It does not compare. My conclusion must be that social distancing stops the flu, or that records are being swayed for money. You should form your own conclusions.
Does social distancing work? It is unethical to try to reproduce experiments that jeopardize lives, but Sweden is an example that did not perform any type of lockdown. Denmark is already back at school. Should we look at data comparing Denmark and Sweden to the USA? I added in statistics from WHO, and CDC based on a number per 100,000 people in the country. I added statistics for my county (Erie, NY) and the downstate region of New York. After I saw how skewed the data is, I added a row for USA with Downstate New York subtracted out. I look at the data and saw that Downstate was particularly hard hit with death and cases from Corona virus. Everywhere else has no statistical differences from the Nordic countries of Denmark and Sweden.
My question, is why is Downstate has 10x more than everyone else? You can compare to Italy, Spain, France, it does not matter. The data is the same. Social distancing? population density? You could compare to Hong Kong for population density. It just does not add up.
The final chart, the top 10 causes of death in the USA. Influenza is number 8, but look at number 4! This is never mentioned. Yearly, 160,000 ‘other respiratory deaths’ caused by COPD, Asthma, Emphysema, Bronchitis, and similar causes. These are all the underlying issues, that can be called Corona, to get extra money from the government. Is this worth a financial meltdown. The USA will no longer be a superpower. Our people have willingly given up their rights for safety and security. Safety and security over normal numbers, just put out often.