
While the war continues in Gaza, the latest intel suggests that Israel may soon be engaged in another major campaign, this one with the much-more-dangerous Hezbollah terror group. Hezbollah has continued firing rockets into northern Israel and Israeli jets continued to strike targets in southern Lebanon. Now, the IDF has announced that “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved.”[i] But the meat of the story is what went on behind the scenes.
American Envoy, Amos Hochstein had been sent by the administration to try to head-off an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.[ii] But Israel used Hochstein to send a message to Hezbollah. The message was effectively an ultimatum. Hezbollah must evacuate southern Lebanon to positions north of the Litani River by June 24th, or Israel would launch a ground offensive into the area. Israel has had to evacuate its’ citizens from the border region with Lebanon. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah sent back a quick reply. If Israel went ahead with preparations to launch such an offensive, Hezbollah would launch a pre-emptive strike “like nothing Israel has ever encountered before. And it will cripple the country.” As of 2021, Hezbollah was estimated to have 130K rockets in stock. The total number today is likely significantly larger.[iii] Israeli residents of the border region with Lebanon not to expect to return to their homes for “at least a year.”
In a post that has since been taken down, the head of the Palestinian Jihad in Syria announced that that group would use its’ troops to support Hezbollah in a conflict. It is reported that Israel is upgrading its’ nuclear capabilities in response the escalating tensions.[iv] [Of course, Israel has never officially admitted that they have a nuclear arsenal.] The day to watch for: June 24th!
As the week went on, Envoy Hochstein announced that “diplomatic efforts to calm tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have officially failed.” Either side could launch at any time. Iran has announced that it will join in and militarily support Hezbollah should war breaks out. Hezbollah has threatened to “hit Cyprus as Cyprus will allow Israeli jets to use runways to bomb Hezbollah. If Cyprus is attacked, then Greece may come to their support.” And things could spiral out of control from there.[v]
Head of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has informed the Israeli government “The Army is ready for war against Hezbollah.” Nasrallah’s reply: “Start a war, and we’ll enter and conquer the Galilee.” Hezbollah also claims to have launched a successful artillery attack against the Israeli Naval Base at Naqoura.[vi]
[i] IDF says operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved, Jerusalem Post / Reuters, June 18,2024
[ii] US wants to avoid ‘greater war’ at Lebanon-Israel border, Reuters, June 18, 2024
[iii] Hezbollah Stockpiled Over 130,000 Missiles to Fight Israel, The National Interest, March 23, 2021
[iv] ISRAEL / HEZBOLLAH, HTR, June 18, 2024
[v] Official Announcement: “Diplomacy Has Failed”, HTR, June 19, 2024
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