Victor David Hanson was asked to explain the current military situation regarding Iran. Is the blockade a success? Much of the mainstream American press will tell you it is a failure and that it is driving up the price of oil. That is certainly true in the short term. But there is much more to the Trumpian policy that is shaking the world right now. Here are the facts.
One Chinese ship did get through the blockade. But now they are being turned back. China buys 80% of Iran’s oil. “So, no one is going to miss it except China.” So, the US will control the strait and anyone who wants to do business with the Saudis, Kuwait, Iraq will be able to conduct trade. Now, Iran’s Kharg Island houses 90% of Iran’s oil. They never built a pipeline – just in case. The ruling class in Iran thought they would always intimidate everyone and that no one could challenge their control. So, they never built a sizeable port in front of the strait, like for instance, Oman did, that would be supplied by a pipeline.
So, Iran is going broke. They are losing hundreds of millions of dollars on a daily basis – in both imports and exports. The population is once again starting to revolt.[i] A giant demonstration took place in Mashhad, the Ayatollah’s hometown. Protests in Tehran, which had started in the poorer neighborhoods, spilled over into the more affluent neighborhoods for the first time. Students were protesting in 36 universities, openly chanting against the regime. Iranian human rights groups reported “at least 45 protestors killed, including 8 children, and hundreds injured.”[ii]
Victor Davis Hanson believes, “We are in the driver’s seat. And you game that out….How many days can they survive. Probably a week, ten days.” The US is waiting them out. If Iran goes follows through on threats to set the Middle East on fire, the US could level Kharg Island. [It’s not a great scenario – because the Trump administration wants Iran to survive – and their oil to begin flowing again someday. But the Iranians have to take that as a real threat.
The population of Iran is revolting against the Ayatollah and his government that has been using their money to build tunnels and missiles and nukes and fund terrorists. And now the population is suffering the consequences of living under a government that has been ignoring the needs of its’ own citizens. Iran has been living on their reputation of being “the terror of the Middle East.” They have established proxies across the Middle East and terror cells in the West, including the US. Even America has been cowed. They have been murdering Americans with impunity. And no President has adequately addressed this. Obama even gave them something like $400 million. [That effectively financed the terror against the America and the West.] They have blackmailed Europe into abandoning Israel. [And now that America has pretty much solved the issue, the Europeans, like the French, want to be a part of the victory and are offering their navies. They want the glory without the blood and the risk.] But now, the Iranian people want to eat.[iii]
President Trump’s policies have begun to flip the Global Diplomatic Board. The Israelis are cooperating militarily with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The United Arab Emirates is withdrawing from OPEC and OPEC Plus. This will enable it to set prices on its’ own oil. They are building a more robust alliance with the US. And here’s the big thing. Iran is running out of the capacity to store any more oil. Iran has openly admitted that they will “have to cease all oil production,” within the next three weeks. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have built pipelines to execute an end around the Hormuz issue and get their oil to market. Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis are unfunded and “crippled.”
Many Arab states of the Middle East are realigning toward friendlier relations with America and Israel. “The Chinese economy is crippled because of their lack of oil from Iran.” Beijing is losing its’ influence in the Third World as its’s Belt and Road project goes broke – and higher oil prices are making it impossible to pay back the Chinese. China wants a bailout from the IMF. But the US holds a veto in the International Monetary Fund – and has said it will not allow such a bailout. And then you have Venezuela, sending oil to the US for refining and Cuba, seemingly on the verge of collapse. And “China has been run out of Chile and Peru.”[iv] US policy is poised for success. And in this area, it is tearing down the globalist system.
However, the war is not over and an upset can still happen. In Iran, the IRGC, is looking to wrest complete control of the country from the civilian leadership.[v] The Mullah’s are firm believers in the near-term coming of the Mahdi. Crazy as it sounds, it has been suggested that, when they cannot store any more oil, they will not shut down production. Perhaps they will just set the oil on fire. Their eschatology tells them that the Mahdi will come to rule the world in a time of chaos. They have often pledged their commitment to fomenting that chaos.
Limits to Human Power
There is one overriding limitation to human agency in all of this. And that is the Will of God! God’s Prophetic Word is at stake here. Iran is the ancient state of Persia. In fact, Iran was called Persia all the way up until 1935. Here’s the prophetic limitation: Ezekiel 38 tells us that Persia will be part of the Magog alliance that comes against Israel in the Last Days. So, no matter how this goes, an anti-Israel power must be in place in Iran to join the Gog / Magog invasion against Israel. The Prophet Ezekiel gives a word from God that tells of a massive invasion of the Holy Land led by Gog & Magog. Using the ancient names, the Bible tells us who will be involved in this unholy coalition. “Persia, Ethiopia, and Libya are with them, all of them with shield and helmet; Gomer and all its troops; the house of Togarmah from the far north and all its troops—many people are with you.” (Ezekiel 38:5-6)
The identities of some of the nations are under debate. And we’ll take that up in the future. But one thing is certain. Persia / Iran is among the leading invaders. You can take that to the prophetic bank.
[i] From a Victor Davis Hanson interview on The Daily Signal, viewed May 1, 2026
[ii] We Will Not Be Silenced, Arthur Rehi, on X, monitored April 30, 2026
[iii] From a Victor Davis Hanson interview on The Daily Signal, viewed May 1, 2026
[iv] The overwhelming success of Donald Trump’s foreign policy is hard to overstate, The Eric Erickson Show,
Monitored April 30, 2026
[v] Ukraine Just Did Something That Will UNBLOCK the Strait of Hormuz, The Geo Network, viewed May 1, 2026
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