The US government repeats the mantra that everyone should get vaccinated. They go so far as to say that masks are pea shooters, and vaccines are cannon in our war with this pile of DNA. I am an engineer and scientist. I cannot conduct my own studies in the field of health and medicine, but I can look at raw data and make a conclusion.
I am not a fan of universal masking, but there could be a benefit. A good science experiment will change only one variable at a time. Last winter with the yearly flu- distancing, lockdowns, and masks were changed worldwide. Most countries, not just the US had significant drops in yearly flu cases and deaths according to Scientific American. If I became subjective, I would hope that masks are the one that would cause that difference. I am digressing, I would like to focus on ‘The Delta Variant’ look around at the headlines, the word Delta gets capitalized everywhere. It should be taken with respect and awe according to the media. The word has the same stature as names of countries, or the Devil.
Headlines in the last few days, ‘Why the new Delta Variant is so contagious’, ‘Should vaccinated people be concerned about the Delta Variant’ The headlines are so ubiquitous, that references and citations are not worth the effort. Here are two that I saw a few days ago that got me looking at the underlying numbers, and the possible US mantra of 2022, vaccination, or execution, do your civic duty. Erie County COVID-19 cases rise; WNY positivity rate at 1.56% | wgrz.com and Pfizer vax is 88% effective against Delta variant: study and excerpt from my local news source about Erie County:
“From July 19 through July 21, there were 113 positive COVID-19 cases reported to the Erie County Department of Health, according to a spokesperson. Of those 113 new cases, 33 were fully vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine, 10 were under age 12 — so not eligible to be vaccinated — and 70 were either unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated.”
From that statement, along with 60% of people (over age 12) in my home county are vaccinated according to the local department of health, and knowing the demographics of my region that 16% of the people are age 12 and under.
32% of those 103 adults are people who are vaccinated (over 12)
68% are unvaccinated people (over 12)
That means in my county.
0.0205% of unvaccinated adults got covid this week
0.0098% of unvaccinated children got covid this week
My conclusions from my test data of approximately 1 million people in my county?
The vaccine is about 50% effective in adults. (about twice as effective) Now a wild one – Unvaccinated children are better off than vaccinated adults. My opinion is that adults are less likely to go to doctors than children making that statistic even a greater eye opener. Seeing that representation got me to delve deeper into the world of statistics. I found a headline Delta variant: Pfizer Covid vaccine 39% effective in Israel, prevents severe illness (cnbc.com), well that is a far cry from over 90%. So back to the raw data from Our World in Data, a non-government entity, that gets their data from reliable (so therefore biased sources). The first graph, Israel touts their early vaccinations. The US, and UK are catching up in vaccination rate. Notice for comparison the barely vaccinated Bangladesh. All four countries report between 88% and 98% of all cases are DELTA.
If vaccines work well, then Bangladesh should be one or two orders of magnitude higher in number of cases per million.
Israel, and Bangladesh have been neck and neck since April with new cases per million people. Well, you say that Bangladesh has a poor reporting system. They are third world. We could pick Mexico, a 20% vaccinated country. Far from herd immunity estimates. Cases are not rising like in the US or UK. Are vaccines really that helpful in this war?
What Causes variants to arise? This story is not getting any attention. I am not a beliver in macro-evolution. ‘Goo to you by way of the zoo.’ I do believe in natural selection. DNA can switch on and off to help the organism survive better. Dr. Lenski raised E. Coli for over 30 years for nearly 100,000 generations in his famous evolution experiment. He starved them on a lack of sugar, but gave them an excess of citric acid which some E. Coli can get energy out of if the DNA switch is on. Unsurprisingly a variant arose that could metabolize citric acid. The conclusion, pressure a living thing about its very survival, and it will find a way to survive, since it was already in its DNA. Well pressure a virus with making it more difficult to find people who it can infect, therefor reproduce, it will find a way around the vaccine. This has been known for decades. Malaria built up resistance to (i.e. found a way around) chloroquinine. Or antibiotic resistance in staph bacteria. This is just the same story, different organism. Vaccinated people are causing the ‘mutations’ not the unvaccinated. Quanta magazine in the pre-covid era. Vaccines Are Pushing Pathogens to Evolve | Quanta Magazine. Or from very own NIH. Adaptation of Bordetella pertussis to vaccination: a cause for its reemergence? (nih.gov). The mantras say one thing. The data says another. Follow the real science!