Beginning again in our last issue, we were examining again the trends that are shaping our short-term future. We looked at US-Israeli relations, the building economic crisis and took a short look at moral failings. In this issue we’ll continue our examination of the ‘Unfolding Present’ – looking at first at the rising tensions between the US and Russia that may be setting the stage for a major conflict involving the world’s two largest nuclear powers…
THE UNFOLDING PRESENT…CONTINUED
“Behold, the nations are as a drop in a bucket, And are counted as the small dust on the scales.” (Isaiah 40:15)
“The Lord brings the counsel of the nations to nothing; he frustrates the plans of the peoples. The counsel of the Lord stands forever, the plans of his heart to all generations.” (Psalm 33:10-11) (ESV)
RUSSIAN RUMOURS – Wars and rumors! Deception and tension! “When you hear of wars and rumors of wars, do not be alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.” (Mark 13:7) (NLT). Over the past couple of years tensions have been running high between the world’s two premier nuclear powers. It kind of really go going when the US and its allies were getting set to go into Syria. It was the Russians and Chinese that separately warned off the allies with threats of even nuclear war. Faced with the specter of a nuclear confrontation, President Obama backed down. Then came the Ukraine. That’s a hard story to unravel. It seems that Washington engineered a coup against the democratic wishes of that republic to put a pro-Western government into power. There was manipulation of what the mainstream media was calling the forces of democracy. But President Putin of Russia also acted with dark motives as Russian troops disguised as civilians to break up the country and arrange the annexation of formerly Ukrainian territory by Moscow. This was all just old fashion power politics on a grand scale.
In reaction to the Russian moves, the US and the West imposed sanctions which have sent their economy into a tailspin. Then came the crash in oil prices, a commodity on which the Russians depended to fuel their economic engine. We’ve covered here before how the price of oil seems to be a factor manipulated to punish the Iranians and the Russians. A by-product of that action is that the value of the Russian ruble is down about 70%. But despite allied efforts, Putin would has not given in and as TIME Magazine reports: “Energy exports from Russia, in the form of coal, oil, natural gas and uranium, continue to flow unimpeded, despite Western efforts to damage the Russian economy for interfering in Ukraine.”[i] Moreover, the changing geopolitical landscape is pushing Russia into closer alliance with energy partners China, Turkey and Iran. And Moscow is not without weapons of their own. It has been known for some months now that both Russia and China possess the cyber warfare resources to take down or at least severely damage America’s power grid.[ii] And as Gary Kah reports: Putin has “begun moving battleships into positions near the US mainland. Russia now has the United States almost completely surrounded, with long-range bombers located off the US coast in the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf of Mexico. Nuclear submarines, aircraft carriers, long-range bombers etc. are all in place to launch a full scale attack.”[iii]
The Russian build-up has been steady and is continuing. They in the process of adding “40 new naval ships to their nuclear arsenal” as they draw into virtual numerical parity with the US. By 2020 they plan to add 8 Borey Class subs.[iv] All of this is being down while America is reducing its military forces. [Perhaps it is pertinent to note here that the US Navy may have developed some vulnerabilities. War games were conducted with the French in February. It was reported: “The practice scenario ended with the French nuclear submarine that was acting the part of an enemy ship ‘sinking’ the American aircraft carrier and most of its escort.”[v]
One of the most alarming developments are the Russian moves aimed at “establishing military dominance over the North Pole.” This is not just hyperbole. Russia has been engaging in some very concrete actions. As reported by Dave Hodges of The Common Sense Shoe, in January they “began to move military assets to the Arctic region of the Finish border,” and reopened an abandoned military base in the region. Combat forces have been moving into the arctic region since 2011 – and in 2014 they extended “the ranges of their patrol flights over the Arctic …. using a network of revamped Soviet-era airfields.” What’s more, Russia is said to have developed the world’s most powerful vacuum bomb, with a shockwave comparable to that of a nuclear blast. “This would be the weapon of choice in the coming Arctic conflict because it would kill soldiers, dismantle military equipment without destroying the surrounding mineral resources.” And those mineral resources would be the aim of any such future conflict for the arctic.[vi] The world is starting to take notice. Sweden is stepping up military preparations in the region and Estonia, formerly a part of the Soviet Empire, fears being “overrun by Russia in minutes.”[vii] Russian moves into the arctic are about more than resources, though there is competition there, with the United States, Canada, Norway and Denmark also getting in the game. For Russia it’s about occupying the strategic high ground. From the North Pole region, Moscow could quickly open new fronts on Alaska, the US through Canada as well as Europe. Dave Hodges sees it as a checkmate move against NATO.
What makes this all very strange in the light of heightened tensions is the fact that the US continues to cooperate with the Russians on military and anti-terrorism matters. In just one example Russian and American troops conducted anti-terrorism drills in Fort Carson. And the US-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission Working Group on Emergency Situations was put in place to foster cooperation “on everything from the drug war and agriculture to terror, science, ‘rule of law’ (could that be code for martial law?), health, environment, energy, nuclear issues, education, culture, media, business, arms control, and more.”[viii] Hodges also reports that his listeners were seeing Russian troops in the Alaskan communities of Sitkan and Ketchikan – as well as spotting numerous Russian subs surfacing just off the Alaskan coast.[ix] Now is a confrontation with Russia going to occur in the immediate future? While not likely, it cannot be discounted. Moscow continues to modernize and deploy. The US is in a pattern of reducing the size of its military while moving forces into place along the Russian borders in places like Latvia and Estonia.[x] The situations in Syria and the Middle East, and the Ukraine continue to fester. Putin takes this all very seriously. And as the AP reported: President Putin admitted in a televised interview that “Russia was ready to bring its nuclear weapons into a state of alert during last year’s tensions over the Crimean Peninsula and the overthrow of Ukraine’s president.”[xi]
[i] Impotent Western Sanctions Fail to Disrupt Russian Energy Exports, Time Magazine, March 4, 2015
[ii] The U.S. government thinks China could take down the power grid, CNN, November 21, 2014
[iii] Gary Kah, Arousing the Russian Bear, Hope for the World, Winter 2015
[iv] Dave Hodges, Russia Is Tightening the Noose for a Military Invasion of the US, The Common Sense Show, March 9, 2015
[v] French Submarine ‘Sinks’ Entire US Aircraft Carrier Group During Wargames, Sputnik News, March 6, 2015
[vi] Dave Hodges, Russia Is Tightening the Noose for a Military Invasion of the US, The Common Sense Show, March 9, 2015
[vii] Estonia Fears Being “Overrun By Russia In Minutes”, Sweden Sends Troops To Baltic Sea Island, Zero Hedge, March 13, 2015
[viii] Dave Hodges, Russia Is Tightening the Noose for a Military Invasion of the US, The Common Sense Show, March 9, 2015
[ix] Dave Hodges, Why Russia Needs Alaska, The Common Sense Show, February 27, 2013
[x] US armor paraded 300m from Russian border, Russia Today, February 25, 2015
[xi] Putin: Russia prepared raising nuclear readiness over Crimea, AP, March 15, 2015
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